CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-08-01T18:36:00-CME-001)

:Issued: 2014 Aug 02 1235 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 40802
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 02 Aug 2014, 1208UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 02 Aug 2014 until 04 Aug 2014)
SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 02 Aug 2014  10CM FLUX: 176 / AP: 011
PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Aug 2014  10CM FLUX: 182 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Aug 2014  10CM FLUX: 186 / AP: 010
COMMENT: There are currently 9 sunspot regions on the solar disk. NOAA 2130
produced an M2 flare peaking at 14:48UT, and NOAA 2127 was the source of an
M1.5 flare peaking at 18:13UT. The CME associated to this flaring activity
was first observed by SOHO/LASCO at 18:36UT. This CME had a true speed of
about 800 km/s, but the bulk was directed to the SE. Nonetheless,
difference imagery detected the outline of a faint halo to the WSW, and was
a near full halo as seen from the STEREO-A vantage point. Hence, a glancing
blow of this CME can not be excluded and could impact Earth in the
afternoon of 4 August.   NOAA 2127, 2130 and 2132 still have areas with
some mixed magnetic polarity.   The CME associated to the 1 August
(10:15UT) filament eruption, which took place in the same location as the
30 July filament eruption, was directed mainly to the north. It does not
seem to have an Earth-directed component despite its proximity to the
disk's center.   Two 25-degrees long filaments in the NE and SW quadrant
remained stable.    C-class flaring is expected, with a chance for an
M-class flare.     Solar wind speed increased from about 350 km/s to values
between 400-450 km/s. Bz oscillated between -10 and +10 nT. Local
geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled, with Kp briefly reaching
active levels just before midnight. No obvious signature from the CME
associated to the 30 July filament eruption has been observed so far in the
solar wind parameters.     Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet
to unsettled, with locally a chance on active conditions as the solar wind
may still be modulated by the 30 July CME (2 August) and the influence of a
coronal hole stream (4 August).
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 123, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 01 Aug 2014
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 168
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 021
AK WINGST              : 012
ESTIMATED AP           : 013
ESTIMATED ISN          : 119, BASED ON 20 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
01  1443  1448 1457 ////// M2.0     340  35/2130      III/1 
01  1755  1813 1848 ////// M1.5     97   32/2127      III/2CTM/1II/2IV/1 
END

BT

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